The results of 10 special House elections this cycle show that the media hype about an approaching blue wave that will supposedly sweep the Democrats to power in the House is just that - hype.
In 2017 and 2018, so far, Republicans have won 8 of 10 special House elections. And one of the two Democratic wins was an all-Democrat contest in California's 34th. The Democrats, of course, also took the special election for the Jeff Sessions Senate seat in Alabama, but Republican Roy Moore had to work very hard to blow that election. The scandals that the Democrats dug up to win that contest scarcely can be called harbingers of a blue wave.
The media portrayed every one of the races, all ultimately won by the GOP, as very close, razor-thin opportunities to show the decay in President Trump's base. In breathless countdowns to Election Day, the national media highlighted the contests and wrote of the virtually unstoppable - and always surprising - Democratic surge it claimed it was detecting. Each time, this special election would be the one that would expose Trump's feet of clay. But, then, after the Republican won, the media obscured the victory by delaying awarding the win to the GOP citing recounts and possible reversal. The final outcome has always been buried in fine print and eclipsed by speculation about the next special election.
Having failed to beat the Republicans, the post-election media focuses on how close the race was, how near the Democrat came to an historic upset. But House special elections are typically very close; an unusual amount of national media attention and money from both parties floods a relatively small district.
At this writing, another media flim-flam has been exposed in the press' refusal to call the special election in Ohio's 12 District, where Republican Troy Balderson defeated Democrat Danny O'Connor by the not uncomfortable margin of 1,754 votes (out of 200,000 cast). This race, too, had been hailed as foreshadowing Republican disaster in 2018. Until it didn't.
So count 'em. Republicans have won in special elections in the following congressional districts:
- Kansas 4 (Ron Estes)
- Montana At-Large (Greg Gianforte)
- Georgia 6 (Karen Handel)
- South Carolina 5 (Ralph Norman)
- Utah 3 (John Curtis)
- Arizona 8 (Debbie Lesko)
- Texas 27 (Michael Cloud)
- Ohio 12 (Troy Balderson)
The sole contested Democratic win was in Pennsylvania 18 where Democrat Conor Lamb was elected to take the seat formerly held by Republican Tom Murphy. Democrats also "won" the all-Democratic runoff in California 34.
There is no coming Democratic wave.
The media began by saying Trump wouldn't run. Then he couldn't be nominated. Then, Hillary would beat him. Then his support would flake away and he'd probably be impeached. Now he's going to lose Congress.
2018 DICK MORRIS AND EILEEN MCGANN
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