Study: S.C., Sumter at 'tipping point' in the spread of coronavirus

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There's a lot of information out there about COVID-19. How do we know what's reliable, and how can we use the often-confusing data to act and help slow the recently increasing spread?

A group of Harvard researchers gathered data from across the country to help provide "clear, accessible guidance" for policy makers and the public on how to fight the new coronavirus and "help cut through the noise and sometimes conflicting advice."

"Experts help interpret the evidence, but they may differ on details that can be confusing for non-experts - and filtering out what matters from a rising sea of misinformation has become a daunting task," The Harvard Global Health Institute says in its study.

According to that study, first released July 1, South Carolina has the fourth-highest rate of new cases per 100,000 people in the nation, and both the state and Sumter County are at a "tipping point" that shows the virus' spread is at a level requiring stay-at-home orders to be reinstated. The data is based on a seven-day rolling average and was last updated Tuesday.

It shows counties' and states' risk levels in green, yellow, orange or red based on the number of new daily cases, taking into account deaths and hospitalizations as well as new confirmed cases. The framework then provides broad guidance on the intensity of control efforts needed based on the risk level.

"Local leaders need and deserve a unified approach for suppressing COVID-19, with common metrics so that they can begin to anticipate and get ahead of the virus, rather than reacting to uncontrolled community spread," said Beth Cameron, vice president for Global Biological Policy and Programs at the Nuclear Threat Initiative and a member of the COVID-Local.org team. "Unless and until there is a whole of government response, with measurable progress communicated similarly and regularly across every state and locality, U.S. leaders will be left to react to the chaos of the virus - rather than being able to more effectively target interventions to suppress it."

Sumter's case incidence trends have already led the school district to decide on starting school on Aug. 17 online, and the city is among at least three dozen others statewide that have passed requirements for masks to be worn in public spaces.

Arizona, Florida and Louisiana have higher rates than the Palmetto State, and Georgia takes the fifth-highest spot. The five states are the only in the country marked red.

Red means there is a "tipping point" and that stay-at-home orders are necessary.

Orange means "accelerated spread," and stay-at-home orders and/or rigorous test and trace programs are advised. Yellow means there is "community spread," and rigorous test and trace programs are advised, and green means "on track for containment."

The framework allows for a breadth of options for what to do when places are at yellow and red. "Once a community reaches the red risk level," according to the study, "stay-at-home orders become necessary again."

There is nowhere in South Carolina in yellow or green, and all 50 states are yellow or higher.

"The metrics are now clear: We can reopen and keep open our workplaces and our communities," said Jonathan D. Quick, managing director for Pandemic Response, Preparedness and Prevention for The Rockefeller Foundation. "But achieving this will require a dramatic expansion of testing and tracing to again flatten the curve and eventually suppress the pandemic to near zero new cases."

Within South Carolina, the entire coast, much of the Midlands and the Greenville area are in the red, including Sumter and Lee counties. Charleston and Horry counties are the top two rates, Lee is eighth, the state rate is 13th, and Sumter is 20th, the lowest rate of the counties in the red.

According to Thursday afternoon's data from the state Department of Health and Environmental Control aggregated by the Post and Courier, Sumter was not included in a list of counties whose seven-day rolling average of new cases is higher than it was 14 days prior. Clarendon and Lee counties were included in the list.

Sumter has had 402 new cases in the last 14 days for a total of 1,303 confirmed cases, according to P&C's data collection. Clarendon County has had 76 cases in the last 14 days for a total of 462 confirmed cases, and Lee County has had 67 cases in the last 14 days for a total of 331 confirmed cases.

On Wednesday, The New York Times published a report that shows South Carolina had the third-highest rate in the world of new confirmed cases per million residents over the last seven days, adjusted for population. The individual states of Arizona, Florida and South Carolina's new cases are each higher than any other country in the world, followed by the country of Bahrain.